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Scenario Planning for Disruptive Technologies?



Scenario planning tackles the complex and ambiguous kind of challenges faced while developing a strategy for the current technologically advanced markets. The value of the scenario planning is established through the test performed by the daily newspaper about the current market and technological impact on market and industries. The rapid advancement of the technology creates an uncertain future where the business environment needs planning to adjust and adopt the new technologies like cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence etc. to remain functional in the market. Scenario planning helps the firms to simulation the business environment with all potential scenarios that the face would face and the helps to plan the methods to deal with every scenario (Lavikka, et al. 2018).

Thus the firm does not need to take the risk for adopting a technology with uncertain possibilities or risk, instead, it can uses scenario planning to test the suitability and the potential of the technology that would benefit the company in the future. Scenario planning explores the different possibilities and capabilities that can be achieved through the new technology. IT basically address three challenges that are uncertainty, complexity and the paradigm shift (Schoemaker & Mavaddat, 2000). The outcomes of the different scenarios are examined through the scenario planning to choose the best suitable feasible option in relation to the business objective. Therefore scenario planning helps in visualization of the relationship between the technology and the market for the companies.

A firm needs to identify the main concerns, their scope and the stakeholders that affected with the issues. The scenario planning helps to identify factors and the elements or the trends in the technology that resolve the current issues. The risk and the uncertainties of the new technology are identified to create the possible outcomes. The scenarios are a visual representation through a matrix that highlight the scenario and its possible outcomes that is reviewed and discussed with the stakeholders for acceptability and reliability. With further research, the options are validated and re-examined before adopting the new technology by the business.


Lavikka, R., Kallio, J., Casey, T., & Airaksinen, M. (2018). Digital disruption of the AEC industry: technology-oriented scenarios for possible future development paths. Construction Management and Economics, 1-15.

Schoemaker, P. J., & Mavaddat, V. M. (2000). Scenario planning for disruptive technologies. Wharton on managing emerging technologies, 206-241.

Evans, A., Martin, K., & Poatsy, M. A. (2017). Technology in action, 13th Edition. Pearson Prentice Hall.

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